2007 is almost over. Good riddance. It’s been a turbulent, crazy, chaotic year in the real estate and mortgage industry. This was the year when it all hit the fan.

• The real estate market slowed down and home prices stagnated or fell.
• The sub prime mortgage sector imploded and hundreds of wholesale lenders went out of business.
• The sub prime virus became a credit crunch, infecting the biggest conforming mortgage lenders. One top 10 mortgage lender bit the dust, and some of the biggest names hung on by the skin of their teeth.
• The costs of getting a mortgage went up, especially for those with good, but not great credit .
• The cost of a Jumbo loan moved up sharply and still hasn’t recovered .
• We saw a return to more traditional underwriting. Income verification is now the norm. Good credit  and down payments are now expected, too.
• Foreclosures and loan defaults spiked, especially in the areas which saw the highest home price increases.

I’ve been an Illinois mortgage lender for 16 years now, and I’ve never seen a year like this. Historically the closest comparison was back in the 80s when the Savings and Loans crisis shook up the mortgage industry, led to a regional recession, a spike in foreclosures and opened the door for mortgage brokers to expand their business. We still don’t know what the long term affects of this melt down will be, but we know the fallout will continue through the new year.

Our economy is a lot like a big Rube Goldberg Machine. One action impacts on another and sets off a chain reaction which leads in a very complicated, round-about way to the end result. You take away one element and the machine won’t work. Consumer spending has long been the driving engine of our economy. What will happen if the housing crunch causes consumers to slow spending down by a lot? How will the rest of our economy react?

There are a lot of unknowns as we go into the new year, and the future is far from clear. I expect that this will be a slower year as the housing problems continue to unwind. But I do see some bright spots and reasons for optimism, too. Putting on my fortune teller hat, here are a few things that I expect to happen over the course of 2008.

1. People will continue to buy homes. Here in Illinois, especially in the Chicago area, the economy is diverse and there is pent up demand for homes. This year, even with all the problems, was the fifth highest year on record for home sales. The market will continue to be soft, but many home buyers will get off the fence and take advantage of bargains.
2. Interest rates will drop. The Fed is in a tough situation. They are walking a wire with inflation on one side and a recession on the other. As the overall economy softens the greater risk will be on the recession side. I expect that we will see lower mortgage interest rates over the course of this year.
3. Conventional mortgage guidelines will continue to tighten. All the major parties in the real estate market are under pressure from mistakes they made during the boom years. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have already tightened considerably over the last months, but they will go further, shutting credit off to many borrowers who used to be looked at as great risks. They were looking at opportunity then, they are looking at risk now. Chances are they will go to far in their tightening, making conventional mortgages tougher to qualify for.
4. FHA and Government Bond programs will take up some of the slack. The Senate passed the FHA modernization bill this month which will lower the down payment required from 3% to 0 down in some cases, and raise the loan limits up to the conventional limit ($417,000). This bill passed the House earlier, and it is expected that a reconciled bill will become law sometime after the first of the year. First time home buyer bond programs like the City of Chicago Bond Program and the State of Illinois Mortgage Bond Program will also fill a niche and help keep homes affordable for first time home buyers.
5. Option A.R.M.s will be the next problem area. About 20% of mortgages originated last year were option arms, which start at an artificially low payment rate but the true rate accrues on the back end, increasing the mortgage balance. Many borrowers took on these loans with out understanding how they work. With their minimum payments low they haven’t caused the payment shock that has been such a problem with sub prime loans, but in areas where home values are deteriorating this will become a real problem.
6. The Government will legislate cures that won’t help and may make things worse. We’ve already seen this in Illinois and there are proposed bills in congress. Predatory lending is a problem, but many of the proposed bills would make it harder for people to qualify, making the problem worse.
7. Real estate will continue to be a local phenomenon. Some markets will continue to decline, others will muddle through without much pain. The recent Case Schiller housing report showed many areas with double digit declines in home prices, but other areas where prices were flat. Chicago, and much of the Midwest, didn’t have the wild upward swings in pricing that some areas saw, and it is likely that it won’t see the sharp declines.

This year has been a time of big changes and we it’s guaranteed we will see more changes as we go forward. In hindsight the problems in the real estate market were glaring and we should have seen them coming. I know myself that a lot of the loans we were doing didn’t make sense in a traditional sense, but I never expected the year to turn out like it did. We will see what the coming year brings. Any opinions on what to expect?

Illinois Mortgage Rates and News

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It’s time again for the Illinois Mortgage Rates and News week in review, my take on the week’s financial news and how it affected Illinois mortgage rates. We are still in a bi-polar market with no consensus on whether our biggest problem is a rise in inflation or the fear of a coming recession. The big news this week showed how world events can move the mortgage market. Add in the Christmas vacation slowdown and it was another roller coaster week in the mortgage backed securities arena.

It is Holiday time and most of the bond traders took the week off. That meant the markets were thinly traded. On weeks like this a small volume of buying and selling can move the markets in a big way. The week started out following the trend from last week with mortgage bonds falling and interest rates moving higher. The expectation was that the week would be quiet and it appeared that the bearish trend in interest rates would stay in place.

Then disaster struck in Pakistan with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto the former Prime Minister and chief opposition to the Government. The chaos in Pakistan is bad news on a global level. Pakistan figures big in U.S. foreign policy because it neighbors Afghanistan, has a large contingent of Muslim fundamentalists and is a nuclear power. The thought of more unrest here sends shivers through the global investment community. Remember, bad news is good news for mortgage bonds. Stocks dived on the news and money rushed into the more stable bonds and mortgage backed securities benefited.

The economic news that came out Thursday also helped to improve interest rates. Durable goods orders came in much lower than expected, and jobless claims rose more than anticipated. Both of these indicators are signs that the economy is slowing down, and that the odds of a recession are higher. This increases the chance that the Fed will lower interest rates again at their next meeting in January.

The trend improved more today with the news that new home sales were down 9% to a 12 year low. This is actually good news for the real estate market. It will be hard for home prices to recover if builders continue to add new inventory. There were some other indicators which showed more of a mixed look on the economy – The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index rose higher than expected – but the dominant news in the thin market was bullish again and rates ended the week marginally better for the week.

The other big news in the real estate market was the release of the Case Schiller Home Prices Index . This shows the state of home prices throughout the country. Some areas showed double digit decreases in prices and the composite number was a decrease of 6.7% over all. The Chicago area fared much better with the decrease in value here a relatively modest 3.2%.

So this week the rates went from up to down, and ended up just about where they were at the end of last week . Again, looking at these rates is just a snapshot of where they ended up. There was a big swing from the highest point of the week to where we ended up at the lowest point. When you are shopping for a loan you need to be aware that rates can change quickly, and a rate quoted in the morning may have changed by that afternoon.

Here is what Illinois mortgage rates look like as of the end of today for an A+, full doc purchase on a 30 day rate lock with 0 points, and no origination fee.  (Again, there are dozens of factors which affect mortgage rates and your ability to be approved for a loan. These rates may not fit your situation and this is just a sample of the programs that are out there. If you would like a quote for you personally, give me a call and I’ll take the time to find the rate and program that is best for you.):

Conventional loans up to $417,000

30 year fixed rate    6.00%      6.183% APR

15 year fixed rate    5.375%    5.494% APR

5-1 A.R.M.               5.75%      5.839% APR         

7-1 A.R.M.               5.875%     6.483% APR

For Jumbo loans over $417,000

30 year fixed rate    6.875%     6.904% APR

7-1 A.R.M.               6.125%     6.229% APR

FHA LOANS up to $270,200 with 1 point origination fee

30 year fixed rate    5.75%    6.043% APR

Next week is another short week and this too could be a thinly traded market with exaggerated ups and downs. There are a number of economic reports coming out next week, but the big release will be on Friday when the employment numbers come out. How this comes out will tell a lot about what to expect at the next Fed meeting, so this should be another wild week.

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Are you looking to buy a new home this year? If you are, planning ahead will make the process easier and less stressful. To make sure that you make the best decision there are several things you should do before you even start to look at houses. Here’s a to-do list for buying a home:

Check your credit – Having good credit is more important than ever before for both qualifying for a mortgage and getting the best pricing. You can get a free copy of your credit report at annualcreditreport.com. (You will have to pay extra to see your Fico score.) Check your credit report for mistakes and potential problems. For more information on credit scoring and how to make the most of your credit, see How to Understand Your Credit and parts two , three  and four.

Determine what you want, and more importantly what you need – This means figuring out what is really important to you. How many bedrooms do you need? Are you looking for a condo or a single family house? Are there features of the home that you must have? Are there things you can do without? Unless you have an unlimited budget, you won’t be able to get everything you want. Thinking it through ahead of time helps you set your priorities.

Set your budget -  How much can you afford to spend on a monthly payment? Keep in mind that you will be get tax benefits with your mortgage, so you can afford more with a mortgage payment than the same amount of rent. But there are other expenses to consider. When you buy a new home you will not only have the mortgage payment, but taxes and insurance, and possibly an association fee, as well as utilities and maintenance. After you buy your new home  will you need more furniture? Will you be redecorating or making home improvements right away? If you don’t have money set aside for these things, will you put them on your credit cards? If so you need to budget for these payments, too.

Count your money – Do you have money for a down payment and closing costs? There are still loans with little or no down payment required, and there are ways to buy with no closing costs. If you have money to put down, where is it coming from? There are a lot of allowable sources,

Put together your documentation – you will need documentation when you go to get your mortgage. Make copies of your most recent W2s, pay stubs and bank statements and you will be a step ahead.

Narrow down your search – Do you know where you want to live? Having an idea of what you are looking for will help you to narrow down the towns or neighborhoods that will work best for you. Compare school districts, amenities, access to transportation, life style and the area’s character.

Get pre-approved for a mortgage – With all the changes in the mortgage market this step is crucial. Even if you were pre qualified for a mortgage earlier, it is important to do it again now. Many loan programs have disappeared and underwriting has gotten much tighter. But there are still a lot of great ways to buy.  A mortgage pre-approval will tell you how much of a loan you can qualify for and how much of a home you can afford. A good loan officer will take it a step further and help you to figure out the best way to structure your financing so it meets your long and short term needs. If there are any problems, a good loan officer can also give you advice on how to put yourself in the best position to buy a home in the future.

Going through these steps beforehand will make your home search easier and more rewarding. Your next step would be to find a good Realtor, find the right home and negotiate a great deal.  But that’s all another topic.

Illinois Mortgage Rates and News

Updated 7/14/2008

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I just finished off my last minute shopping at the mall. My family get together’s were earlier, so this was just getting some odds and ends for the kids. I hate shopping, and I do tend to procrastinate so it’s not unusual for me to be out on Christmas Eve. What was unusual was the state of the mall. I usually need to park in the back reaches, a long hike from the stores. This year I parked close and had my choice of open spaces. The stores seemed less crowded inside, too. There was no wait at the registers and I was in and out of the stores in record time.

The part of Illinois I live in, Dupage County, is fairly well to do, so I can’t imagine that this is a direct reflection on the economy. People here may be concerned but it is not going to keep them from spending money at the holidays. More people may have done their shopping earlier this year, but the other times I was out it seemed the same.

Could the Internet be the difference? I know that I do more and more of my shopping on line. This way I can avoid the crowds, traffic and general hassle. The weather has been more winter like here in Illinois than it has in recent years, so that may be another factor for keeping people inside.

I am interested in seeing how the retail numbers do come out. The predictions were that this would be a slower Christmas shopping season, but the November numbers were higher than expected. Consumer confidence is down and credit is tapped out for many, so we will see if the December numbers follow this trend. How the sales turn out will help determine the trend in mortgage interest rates into the new year. If sales are slower than expected, that will be one more sign that the economy is slowing. This makes it more likely that mortgage rates will fall. If the retail numbers are better than expected, it means the economy is still strong, and rates will likely rise.

We will be hearing more soon, and when we do, I will post my take on what is going on and how it affects Illinois mortgage rates and your mortgage experience. I wish you all a Merry Christmas and a happy and joyous holiday season.

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It’s time again for the Illinois Mortgage Rates and News week in review, my take on the week’s financial news and how it affected mortgage rates.

This was another rip rocking week in the mortgage market as stocks and bonds seesawed back and forth with money rushing from stocks into bonds and by the end of the week back into stocks. It all revolves around the question of what is  happening with the economy. Is the real estate slow down and credit crunch about to infect the rest of the economy? Are we on the brink of a recession? Are we in one? Is the worst of it over?

No one knows the answer to these questions, and with the trend uncertain the markets are a scary place to be. One of the things to keep in mind here is that bad news for the economy is good news if you are looking for lower mortgage rates. Last week ended with mortgage bonds tanking on worries of the economy improving and inflation increasing. This week started with news signaling a slowdown, so mortgage rates started to improve. By mid-week bonds were in a full scale rally and it looked like the market had found its direction. But the rally didn’t last. Consumer spending came out higher than expected and in a 180 degree turn, traders are now convinced that the worst of the slowdown is over and our big worry now is inflation. Again. Bonds tanked, and the week closed with stocks soaring.

Over the week we had three days where lenders came out with their rates in the morning, and due to market changes re-priced before the day was over. One day the re-price was for the better, but on both Thursday and Friday lenders were changing their rates for the worse. What does this mean for you as a consumer if you are in the market for a mortgage and shopping interest rates? For one thing it means you need to compare rates at the same time. If you talked with one lender in the morning and another in the afternoon the market had changed and you were comparing apples to kumquats. The second thing it means is that unless you are willing to take a big risk, you are best served by locking in your interest rate when you make your application, instead of floating it hoping for a better rate.

So with all this volatility where are interest rates now? Just about where they were this time last week for most loan products. The rates fluctuated by about .25% over the course of the week, but in the end, the more things change the more they remain the same and we are right back where we started.

Here is what rates look like as of the end of today for an A+, full doc purchase on a 30 day rate lock with 0 points, and no origination fee.  (Again, there are dozens of factors which affect mortgage rates and your ability to be approved for a loan. These rates may not fit your situation and this is just a sample of the programs that are out there. If you would like a quote for you personally, give me a call and I’ll take the time to find the rate and program that is best for you.):

Conventional loans up to $417,000

30 year fixed rate    6.00%      6.183% APR

15 year fixed rate    5.625%    5.744% APR

5-1 A.R.M.               5.75%      5.839% APR         

7-1 A.R.M.               5.875%     6.483% APR

For Jumbo loans over $417,000

30 year fixed rate    6.875%     6.904% APR

7-1 A.R.M.               6.125%     6.229% APR

FHA LOANS up to $270,200 with 1 point origination fee

30 year fixed rate    5.875%    6.124% APR

Next week it is Christmas week, and mortgage bond traders,  like the rest of us, will be taking some time off. This means that the market will be thinly traded, and  it’s not unusual to see big moves on low volumes. There is not a lot of big news coming out, but expect volatility.

Here’s what the chart looked like for last week. Red means rates are moving up, green means interest rates are improving. Illinois Mortgage Rates and News signing off.

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With all the changes in the mortgage industry, underwriting is getting tighter and mortgage money is more expensive. With risk based pricing  buyers with lower down payments and Fico scores below 680 are getting squeezed. These buyers used to be considered great risks, but now they will be charged either a higher rate or higher fees for their conventional mortgage. Who does this affect most? First time home buyers.  As lenders pull back, many low and no down payment loan programs have disappeared. But there are still options, and if you live in Chicago, Illinois, one of the best programs is the City of Chicago Bond Program.

The Government, both local and national, has a real interest in getting more people to buy homes. Because of this they have come up with programs geared toward helping low and moderate income buyers buy with special terms. If you meet the guidelines, you can buy with a below market fixed rate mortgage. The City of Chicago Bond program also provides that the lender give the borrower a 4% grant of the purchase price at closing to pay for the down payment and closing costs. This means you can buy your new home with no money down.

The purpose of this program is to make housing more affordable for home buyers with low or moderate incomes. In order to qualify you need to conform to the income limits. But moderate income is relative, and this leaves room for a lot of people to qualify. For a single person the current limit is $60,320 per year for a non-targeted area, $72,384 if you are buying in a targeted area (targeted areas are lower income zip codes where they are encouraging redevelopment). For a family of 3 or more the limits go up to $86,710 for non-targeted areas, and $105,560 in a targeted area.

The value for a single family home cannot be higher than $325,894 in a non-targeted area, and up to $398,315 in a targeted area. You can go even higher if you are buying a 2-4 unit property. As you can see, this leaves a lot of flexibility for qualifying. This is normally a first time buyer program, but that restriction is waived if you buy in a targeted area. Some of the city’s hottest neighborhoods are in targeted areas.

The city sells bonds to cover this program, and the interest rate changes based on market conditions when the bonds are originated. The loan is on a first come first served basis. When a buyer gets a contract to purchase a home, the lender locks the loan in with the bond agency. When the money for that bond series is spent new buyers are put on a waiting list until the next series is issued. This is done on a regular basis, and the waiting list means you may be waiting for a couple of weeks at the most before the loan is filled.

If you qualify, this is one of the best ways to buy a new home in the city of Chicago. One thing to keep in mind, these programs are not available from every lender. They are only offered by mortgage bankers like myself, and aren’t available from mortgage brokers or most community banks. If you would like more information or if you want to see if you qualify, let me know.

There are other bond programs available in Illinois outside the Chicago city limits. I’ll go over these in later posts.

Illinois Mortgage Rates and News

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Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced today that the Federal Reserve Bank will take steps to protect consumers from predatory loans by closing the barn door now that all the cows are already out. This does leave the possibility that if the cows do return they will be stuck outside and not able to get back into the barn, but Chairman Bernanke is a strong supporter of the better late than never school of philosophy.

In a related story, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan continued his book tour with an appearance on the Today show. He announced that the slowdown in the real estate market was a big concern and the low interest rates set during his time at the Fed may have contributed to the bubble. He also acknowledged that his endorsement of adjustable rate mortgages and non-traditional types of financing may have made it worse. While the problem we have may have come about due to decisions made on his watch, he assured the host that it certainly wasn’t his fault.

In a side note, former Chairman Greenspan claimed that a major problem in our nation is the failure of people to take personal responsibility for their actions.

Illinois Mortgage Rates and News

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Chicago, Il – I got a call the other day from a couple who were anxious to buy a home. They  had been referred by a Realtor and he was anxious to sell them a home, too. They had heard about a first time home buyer program and wanted to see if it would work for them.

I talked with the wife and I went over my normal list of questions. When I pre-qualify someone for a mortgage, I ask them all sorts of things about their job history and financial situation and where they see themselves down the line. My goal is to find out how they will best qualify for a mortgage, and what the best way is to help them meet their goals, both now and in the future. In my conversation with this prospect some of the answers didn’t quite add up. I followed up with more questions and still wasn’t getting a clear picture. Red flags were starting to rustle in the wind.

I suggested that we run a credit report. The prospect balked. No, she wasn’t ready for me to see their credit. I thanked her for her time but told her that I had no idea if they would even be able to qualify for a loan without reviewing their credit.

The Realtor tried calling them later, but by then the phone was disconnected. Which leads me to an observation:

If you can’t pay your phone bill, you are probably not ready to buy a home now.

I think we can expand this list.

If you don’t have a job or a source of income, you are probably not ready to buy a home now.

If you can’t afford your current payments, you are probably not ready to buy a home now.

There’s more, of course, but the truth is there are still a lot of ways to buy a home. Even if you don’t have much money for the down payment, and even with the changes in the mortgage market (With FHA financing there are ways you can buy with no money out of your own pocket and you don’t have to have perfect credit). There are some great mortgage programs available including FHA and special loans for first time home buyers. But buying a home isn’t the right option for everyone, and if you are having trouble paying your bills now, this probably isn’t the right time for you to buy a home.

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As this week comes to a close, it is time again for the Illinois Mortgage Rates and News market and mortgage rate update. I want to emphasize that I am not an economist or an expert on the financial markets. What I am is an Illinois mortgage guy who follows the markets closely.

The big news for this week was the Fed cutting short term rates by .25%. The suspense going into the meeting was not on whether they would cut, but on how much they would cut. Wall Street, looking for a big move to bail out the big banks, was hoping for a half percent. When they didn’t get what they wanted they threw a fit. The next day the Fed tried to atone for their failings by announcing they were working with a consortium of European state banks to throw extra money to those banks in need. This helped take the pressure off and stocks improved, a little, while mortgage bonds continued to get hammered.

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) was released today and showed that inflation is still a problem. The overall rate was up .8% for the month. Not surprising. With oil prices high everything gets hit. After taking out oil and food, the core inflation rate was still up .3% for the month, the largest increase since February and well above the target. With inflation growing the consumer is getting blasted with higher prices while their paychecks stay the same. Consumer spending has been the engine that has kept the economy afloat. With the consumer squeezed by high prices and stagnant wages don’t expect consumers to spend their way to a recovery. In my opinion the Fed will have no choice but to ignore the inflation and continue to focus on avoiding a recession.

So that is the scoop in the markets. How has it affected mortgage interest rates? Surprisingly not that much. Last week mortgage rates dropped to their low for the year. We had a brief window where rates were great. If you moved fast you could have locked in on a refinance or purchase loan in the upper 5s. But by the end of the week they were back in the low 6s. Which is right where we are now.

Here is what rates look like as of today for an A+ borrower on a 30 day rate lock with 0 points, and 0 origination fee.  (Keep in mind there are dozens of factors which effect mortgage rates and your ability to be approved for a loan. These include your credit score, the loan to value, the loan amount, your documentation type, the loan purpose and on, and on. This is meant more as a gauge of where we are from week to week. If you would like a quote for your personal situation, give me a call and I’ll take the time to find the rate and program that is best for you.):

Conventional loans up to $417,000

30 year fixed rate    6.125%     6.183% APR

15 year fixed rate    5.75%      5.839% APR

5-1 A.R.M.               5.75%      5.839% APR         

7-1 A.R.M.               5.875%     6.483% APR

For Jumbo loans over $417,000

30 year fixed rate    6.875%     6.904% APR

7-1 A.R.M.               6.125%     6.229% APR

FHA LOANS up to $270,200 with 1 point origination fee

30 year fixed rate    5.875%    6.094% APR

These are only a few of the hundreds of programs available. We also have State of Illinois and City of Chicago bond programs with below market interest rates for first time home buyers. If you have a specific need give me a call and I’ll tell you exactly what we can do for you.

This is how mortgage bonds performed over the week. Red is bad, green is good.

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It’s no surprise that some Major League Baseball players used performance enhancing drugs. Anyone who saw the way that Barry Bonds looked when he first came into the league, and then saw the cartoon character he became later, knows he was juicing. The same thing goes for Sammy Sosa and a host of others. Today the Mitchell Report, a congressional investigation on the use of steroids in baseball, was released and it named 80 players who used steroids, human growth hormone or other banned substances. (Sammy Sosa wasn’t listed, but this has to be an over sight.) The list of players included the full range from Hall of Fame bound superstars like Roger Clemons, all the way down to utility players who wouldn’t make the cut on your fantasy baseball team.

Some of the names might be a surprise, but any casual fan knows that baseball has been crooked for years. You knew it back in 1998 when Mark Maguire hit 70 home runs and Sosa hit 66, both beating Roger Marris’ record of 61. When home run records which stood unbroken for years suddenly are falling like autumn leaves you know that something has changed. At first there was talk about how the ball was juiced, or the modern players had a better training regimen, but everyone knew the real reason for such a huge increase in production.

As all this was going on, MBL did its best to ignore it. Life was good, fans were filling the bleachers and profits from merchandising were at an all time high. Let the good times roll. The players didn’t stop it. Competition at this level is tremendous and a baseball player’s career is short. If they can gain an edge by taking a pill or getting a shot, many players will do it. The media raised the issue of doping, but it also built up the players to larger than life size. That was the way to get the ratings up. Fans didn’t complain much either. No one did.

Now that the extent of the problem is out in the open, it is impossible to ignore. This wasn’t a problem with a few big name stars, this was a problem throughout the game. Cheating was normal. Now it will take years to clean up the game and rebuild the reputation of America’s pastime.

Sounds like the real estate market, doesn’t it? Like steroids, cheap money and loose underwriting drove property values ever higher. Home ownership rates hit new records. Real estate was the hot topic and it was a good time to be a Realtor, mortgage broker, appraiser or anyone connected with the industry. Everyone is pointing fingers for who is to blame now, but while it was going strong, no one complained. And like with baseball, we will be cleaning up these problems and rebuilding our reputation for a long time to come.

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