Illinois Mortgage Rates Weekly Update
28th June 2008
Welcome to Illinois Mortgage Rates and News week in review for the week ending June 27th, my take on the week’s financial news and how it affected Illinois mortgage rates.
The Fed took the spotlight this week, and as anticipated, they left interest rates the same but talked tough about
the threat of inflation. Wall Street wasn’t happy with the decision. The Dow hit a low just ticks away from a 20% overall decline, the official mark of a Bear market. Not only did the Fed not raise rates, but their announcement balanced the threat of inflation with the threat of further slow downs in the general economy. This signaled that the Fed plans to stand pat, keeping rates the same until something forces their hand. The stock market dived and mortgage bonds benefited. Mortgage backed securities moved through an area of strong resistance Friday afternoon, ending the week at their best level in the last 3 weeks.
The question this week, as it has been over the last few months is which is worse, inflation or recession? This is much like saying which way would you rather be tortured? Water boarding? Or bamboo shoots under your fingernails? If it’s all the same to you, I’d rather do without either. But the Fed doesn’t have that choice. The case for raising rates is that the low Fed funds rate has killed the value of the dollar, and oil is denominated in dollars so its rise is a direct result of the weak dollar. The argument here is that raising the rates will add value to the dollar and oil will fall once the Fed acts. This may be true, but the global economy is much more complex than this, and a raise in rates might do more harm than good. The credit crunch is still in force, and hiking rates would mean that credit goes from tight to a stranglehold, smacking the real estate market and the business climate down further. This would surely lower gas prices; with lower demand prices would have to fall. But if the economy falls into a deep recession, it could make matters much worse and killing the patient doesn’t make for a successful operation.
The other school of thought is that inflation is a problem, but the oil shock we are experiencing isn’t the same as inflationary spirals we’ve seen in the past. For one thing, there is no wage inflation. Inflation can destroy an economy if everyone thinks that prices on everything are moving higher. But wages are stagnant and with global competition no one expects wages to move up much any time soon. Prices are moving up on food, fuel and anything that uses petroleum, but if you look at the value of your home or the balance on your 401K the values are down. The other thing is that the Fed might not be able to do anything to control the inflation, even if they raised rates sharply. In a global economy there are more moving parts than in a Rube Goldberg machine, and the United States doesn’t have the economic power it once did. The cost of oil has been moving up steadily for years now. China, India and much of the developing world have been booming, and their demand for oil has pushed the cost higher. We also aren’t finding new oil supplies fast enough to replace the wells that run out. Add in a good dose of fear and speculation and it’s no wonder the price runs up higher. As the global economy slows down, speculation should ease and oil prices may come down as a result. At least a little. But the world has changed and most experts don’t think we will ever see cheap oil again. So the real question is the run up in oil inflation, or the new fact of life?
In other economic news, consumer confidence this week came in at the third lowest reading ever, and the lowest since 1980. Oil prices surged again, now up to $142 per barrel. Personal spending for last month was the best reading in the last 5 months, but if the stimulus checks are gone this is probably not a trend. New and existing homes both came in a touch better than expected, but still at low levels. Sales of homes in the Chicago area were down 29% from last year, but up from the previous month. Prices here seem to be stabilizing. The core inflation rate showed we are just over the target zone, giving the Fed some cover for their decision not to raise rates. Here in Illinois, Attorney General Lisa Madigan sued Countrywide Mortgage for abusive loan practices. I have mixed feelings on this one. I’m not a fan of Countrywide. As a company they have been arrogant and they were the leaders in some of the bad practices that got us into this whole mortgage mess. I also like Lisa Madigan. She’s done a good job as Attorney General, and I expect that she will be our next Governor. But that’s the point of this, it’s all political. Countrywide is a big target and an easy way to score political points, but unless they can show it was a corporate decision to defraud customers, I don’t see this going anywhere.
Mortgage rates are moving in the right direction, but the real improvement in mortgage bonds came at the end of the session on Friday afternoon, and most of the lenders didn’t re-price to show the improvement (it’s funny how quickly they re-price when rates are heading up, but are slower on the trigger when mortgage rates are moving down). The area of resistance that was keeping rates from improving may now act as resistance and a stopping point when rates are getting worse. It’s amazing how often points on a graph that acted as a ceiling become a floor when the market breaks through.
Here is what Illinois mortgage rates look like today for an A+, full doc purchase on a 30 day rate lock, with 0 points, and no origination fee. The conventional loans are based on the highest conforming loan amounts, which give the best pricing. (Again, there are many factors which affect mortgage rates and your ability to be approved for a loan. These rates may not fit your situation and this is just a sample of the programs that are out there. If you would like a quote for your personal situation, or to get pre-approved for a mortgage, give me a call or contact me and I’ll take the time to find the rate and program that is best for you.) :
Conventional loans up to $417,000
30 year fixed rate 6.375% 6.589% APR
15 year fixed rate 5.875% 6.124% APR
5-1 A.R.M. 5.625% 5.788% APR
7-1 A.R.M. 5.875% 5.989% APR
For Jumbo loans over $417,000
30 year fixed rate* 6.875% 6.997% APR – Requires 20% down payment
7-1 A.R.M.* 6.125% 6.327% APR *there is a 1 year pre-payment penalty on this option.
FHA LOANS - 3% down payment
With 1 point origination fee – 60 day lock
30 year fixed rate 6.125% 7.048% APR
With no origination fee – 60 day lock
30 year fixed rate 6.375% 7.056%
FHA APR reflects 3% down payment and the effect of mortgage insurance on the loan.
These are just a few of the programs and mortgage rates available. Which option is best for you depends on your own specific goals and needs. If you have any questions or want to go over your situation in depth, let me know how I can help.
Illinois Mortgage Rates and News
Peter Thompson is illinois Mortgage Broker
Contact illinois Mortgage Company Today !
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FHA is a government backed loan which is designed to help more people buy homes. FHA doesn’t loan the money themselves, they set up the guidelines and insure the lenders against loss through their mortgage insurance premiums. The goal of FHA isn’t to make a profit, like the private mortgage insurance companies, but to encourage more home ownership which makes a more stable society. This means they are willing to take on borrowers who are considered higher risk due to low down payments, lower credit scores, and those who haven’t built up traditional credit. This is still their mission, but now the riskier borrowers will end up paying a little more to make sure the program stays solvent.
best deal. I’ve heard too many horror stories over the years of buyers who were promised one rate, but when they got to closing they found the rate was higher, the costs were considerably more, or the program was different than what they were promised. If you got the bait and switch at closing (it’s illegal, but it does happen) you have two choices. One, you can walk away from the closing, possibly losing your earnest money, or two, you swallow your anger and go through with the deal. The problem is that the loan officer knows much more about how the system works than the consumer does. The mortgage application process can be intimidating, and you are signing a stack of disclosures, most of which no one reads. What your lender told you may be different from the documentation you signed. Mortgage lenders who are behaving in this manner are obviously not looking for repeat business. The companies that play these games are looking for the fast buck and don’t care about your long term value as a satisfied customer.
choose your lender, especially if they were recommended by a Realtor or real estate attorney who has lots of contact with different mortgage brokers and mortgage bankers. Ask your attorney what he knows about the company or loan officer you are dealing with. If the company is active in his market area, he will know the reputation of the company and how reputable they are.
credit were choking the system. Big banks and financial powerhouses were on the edge of failure and our whole economy was in the danger zone. The Fed moved decisively to inject credit into the financial markets and stem the panic. Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief, but the easier credit didn’t trickle down to the small business or home mortgage markets. On Main Street the stranglehold still seems pretty tight. The economy hasn’t been growing, but with the rate cuts and stimulus checks there have been some signs of activity. And now with gas and food prices spiking up, the worry has turned from the softness in the economy to the threat of inflation. Over the last few weeks mortgage rates headed higher as the financial community, in mass, called for higher rates to stop the inflationary spiral that was about to hit us. Last week it became official that the economy was on the road to recovery when former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan announced that the credit crunch was over, or would be soon. This week a new message is coming through – not so fast, we might not be out of the woods yet.
bring to closing. A lot of information is listed on the Good Faith, but when comparing loan offers the numbers you need to compare are the companies bank fees. Title charges, escrows and pre-paid interest can be changed around to show a lower bottom line, but the bank fees are the items that they can control. 
Much of the inflation is due to the high demand for commodities in developing countries overseas. India and China have been booming and they are growing a huge middle class. This brings a desire to increase their standard of living, which means more cars on the road and an improved diet, so food and fuel prices go up. This trend will be with us for a while, but there are signs pointing to a slowdown in Asia, and if there is this will reduce inflation by itself. The other thing that makes me think this will come down on its own is the trading activity. I have a friend who is a trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where he trades contracts for cattle futures. Futures contracts are traditionally used as a hedging device. So if McDonalds wants to lock in the price of their hamburgers 9 months from now, they buy contracts on the exchange and they know what their costs will be going forward. This exchange has traditionally been used by farmers and food producers to take some of the ups and downs out of the market and measure their risk. So who are the big buyers of cattle futures today? They’re not food producers; they are financial companies, some of the same big players who created the bubble in the mortgage market. They are buying futures in all the commodities from grains to oil. The reasoning is sound. Prices are going up, so they need to buy the futures and take advantage of the rising prices. Only their buying divorces the price from any fundamentals of supply and demand. Food and fuel prices are in a bubble now, and at some point this bubble will pop and prices will go down. The question is when, and it could get much worse before it gets better.
mortgage, most of the loans will be sold off to a small group of end investors. The majority of conventional loans end up in the portfolio of one of two organizations, FNMA or FHLMC, often called Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac. These organizations are government sponsored corporations that are charged with buying up mortgages in the aftermarket, packaging them into investments that are sold on Wall Street, and making sure there is always money available to lend for mortgages.
based on how long they are guaranteed for – the shorter the time period, the lower the rate.
a bad week. Make that a bad day. A really bad day. Over the last months, the economy has been dealing with the twin dangers of recession and inflation. In the last few weeks it looked like the economy was growing slowly enough that we might avoid the recession, but it’s looking more and more likely that we may be lucky enough to get both at the same time.
Here is what Illinois mortgage rates look like today for an A+, full doc purchase on a 30 day rate lock, with 0 points, and no origination fee. The conventional loans are based on the highest conforming loan amounts, which give the best pricing. (Again, there are 
