What is Going On With Mortgage Rates?
29th October 2008
If you’ve been following interest rates lately, you might have whiplash. Rates have gone up, then back down, then up again. And that’s all in the same day. Over the last year mortgage rates have been more volatile than at any time in the nearly 17 years I’ve been following them. But in the last few weeks, since the credit crunch hit, the volatility has gone through the roof. Mortgage rates have tested their high point for the year, then swung around and dropped to the best rates we’ve seen in the last few months, before swinging back the other way and nearing the yearly highs again. What is going on with mortgage rates?
In normal times, mortgage rates go up and down based on activity in the mortgage backed securities market, and the prices mo
ve based on how traders read the state of the economy and the possibility of inflation in the future. Inflation brings down a bond’s yield, so any hint of inflation is going to decrease the value of a mortgage bond, meaning interest rates will go up. On the other hand, when the economy is slowing down this means that the yield is safe, so more investors buy in and mortgage rates go down. That is how it works in normal times. But these aren’t normal times.
All the economic reports point to a slowing economy, which should mean that rates go down. But that hasn’t been the case. Oil and commodity prices have dropped like a stone in the last two months. This should have made rates go down, but it didn’t. Unemployment is up, and so are foreclosures, while the stock market and home values are down. All of these should mean that rates are going down. Yesterday the consumer confidence index slipped to an all time low, and mortgage rates got worse. In fact, the normal concerns of inflation and economic slowdown don’t seem to have any correlation with mortgage rates now. So again, what is going on?
I think there are two explanations for what we are seeing, de-leveraging and panic. I’ve talked about de-leveraging before. This is like a margin call on the markets. Big investors, including mutual funds and hedge funds, have borrowed heavily to leverage the return on their investments. This strategy works great when the market is going up, a small amount of money controls a bigger investment and the returns are magnified. But what works well on the way up can be a killer on the way down. The losses are now magnified and in order to pay back the losses, investors are forced to sell everything they have – the good as well as the bad. The other explanation is panic. In a time of uncertainty everything is suspect and nothing does well. This needs to play itself out and confidence needs to return before the markets can stabilize.
But I do see two things which make me think that mortgage rates are still likely to go down.
1 – The risk for holders of mortgage bonds has gone down. Now that the Government has taken control of Fannie and Freddie mortgage bonds, are nearly as safe as treasuries. So as long as there is faith in the US economy (So far, so good. The dollar has gone up during this crisis) having the US government standing behind them, mortgage bonds should out perform other investments from a risk standpoint.
2 – The goal of the Fed and the Treasury is to get the economy growing again, and in order to do this the housing sector needs to get healthier. Treasury Secretary Paulson has said that one goal is to get mortgage rates down so that home owners have an incentive to buy. That hasn’t worked out so well yet, but over time it is likely.
The Fed is expected to cut the Fed Funds rate today by .50%. This will mean that rates for business loans and home equity loans drop, but it won’t necessarily help mortgage rates. Often mortgage bonds worsen after the Fed cuts rates. But usually within a week or so, the market sees a benefit and rates do drop. No one knows the timing, and in this crazy market there are no hard and fast explanations. But don’t be surprised if rates do start dropping again soon.
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world wide panic has shifted from worries about the credit crunch to worries about the severity of the global recession. One trader defined this market as periods of panic interrupted by moments of calm. It is not just people or investors panicking, but the banks themselves. The banks are still afraid to lend money, and with all the markets in downdraft, investors are having to sell whatever they have, good, bad or ugly, in order to raise cash (except for treasury bonds, money is rushing into the safety of T bills). In a way this is like a margin call on the entire global economy. When you buy stocks on margin (with borrowed funds) and the stocks go up, a small investment can turn into a big return. We are seeing the opposite of that now. As prices of nearly every asset class drop, the banks, investors and other market participants need to come up with extra cash to meet their margin calls. With prices down they need to sell more in order to come up with the cash required, and this feeds into a downward spiral where lower prices feed more selling which means the prices drop even lower.
both general mortgage and real estate questions, and things that are specific to their situations. But it seems that I do get a lot of questions that come up regularly. These questions relate to many situations, so this is the first in what will now be an occasional feature on frequently asked questions. I hope the answers will help you and your specific needs.
reverse themselves the next day. All this year volatility has been at an all time high, but since Lehman Brothers fell and the global credit system went into cardiac arrest, the volatility has gone into overdrive. But as crazy as the markets have been, the panic is receding and the credit market is taking baby steps back to a functioning level. There are still huge problems in the global debt and equity markets, but the governments, here in the US and all across Europe, have stepped in and injected oodles of cash into the system and there are signs of improvement.
than normal. These are scary times in the real estate market. Home prices are down sharply from where they were last year, or even over the last several years. The credit crunch has morphed into a financial crisis and it looks like we are in a recession, and the recession may get worse before it gets better. Financing is tighter than it was before and you will need to have a down payment in order to get a mortgage. Being a first time home buyer is always scary but with fear in the air the safe thing to do is to sit on the sidelines. Or is it?
bonds, you name it, this week was a bloodbath. When the $700 trillion dollar economic bailout bill failed to gain the markets confidence and get the credit markets moving, Treasury secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke pulled out some more tricks from their bag and did everything but drop money from the sky. The Fed doubled their auction capacity from $450 billion to $900 billion, opened their lending window to commercial paper and dropped the discount rate by .5% in conjunction with a consortium of global national banks. And none of it made a bit of difference. The commercial paper market, banks lending to other banks, remained frozen, and stock markets around the world went back in time about 5 years to the values they were at in 2003. The stock markets now about 40% off its peak, the Dow was at about 14,000 a year ago and closed just above 8,451 today (after being below 8,000 in the morning).
with home owners wondering how their taxes moved up so sharply. Home values have trended down over the last few years, but accessed values have moved up, in some cases by a lot. The problem is that properties are re-accessed every 3 years (each township rotates so they are not all done at the same time), and this year the re-assessment comes at a time when legislation has phased out some tax caps, so the result is a spike in tax bills while the value of their home is lower.
woodwork. I’m getting more calls, emails and contracts from buyers who want to buy their first home than any time in the last six months. As home owners worry about how there homes are worth less, new buyers are looking at this as an opportunity to buy a home at fire sale prices. Buying now they can afford homes that were out of their price range just a year or two earlier.
In spite of all the news about the credit crunch, there is still plenty of mortgage money available. I got several calls over the week from people wondering if mortgages were being cut off, and the answer is no, if anything mortgage money is more available than it was a few weeks ago. Most of the loans we are doing now are either conventional or