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How Will an Obama Presidency Affect the Mortgage and Real Estate Markets?

7th November 2008

The Chicago area has been in the spotlight this week with the election of Barack Obama as our next president of the United States. As a Chicago area Presidential seal, Chicago mortgage company resident I’ve had a first hand look at Obama before he was on the national radar, and I’ve followed him closely as he reached national prominence. In my own little brush with greatness, I had the chance to talk with him for a few minutes 4 years ago when he was first running for the senate. He came off as smart, approachable and down to earth guy with an easy sense of humor – a scaled down version of how he is in front of the huge crowds. I’m proud to have him as our president and I have hopes for what he can do for our country in the future. One of the questions I’ve been asked a lot over the last month was what would happen to the real estate markets and what will happen with interest rates with an Obama’s victory?

In the long run we don’t know, but we’ve already seen one big change already. This hasn’t really been a result of an Obama win or anything he has said or did, it is more a matter of how the uncertainty before was adding to the market’s stress. Love him or hate him, we now know who is going to be in charge for the next four years, and that reduces the stress. I didn’t expect any quick change as a result of the election. The polls consistently predicted an Obama victory, so I figured that everyone already expected that result and it was already baked into the cake as far as the markets were concerned. On that note at least I was wrong.

The real estate market had dropped off a cliff after the credit crunch hit, and with home buyers nervous about the future I didn’t think that the election would affect that one way or the other. But on Tuesday, election day, my phone rang off the hook, many of the calls were from people I hadn’t talked with in months who suddenly had offers on their properties or were about to make offers on a new home. A similar situation occurred on the mortgage bond market. Election day set off a huge rally and over the last few days rates have dropped to their best point in the last month. It turns out that even though most people expected the result, uncertainty has made a big difference in people’s attitudes, and knowing who is going to lead us for the next 4 years has taken away one layer of risk.

Going forward what is happening in the economy will have the biggest impact on both the real estate market and the direction of interest rates. We will see who Obama picks for his economic team and what policies he is able to put into place and these will all effect the direction of the markets. But for now, after floundering about with a lame duck who never quite seemed in control as the economy sank, just knowing who our new president is going to be has added a little confidence to the markets.

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