Good Bye to 2008 – A Look Back At a Crazy Year for the Economy
31st December 2008
2008 is finally at an end, and as the economy totters forward, we can say we survived a tumultuous year. That is an understatement. In my year end review of last year, I said that 2007 was the year it all hit the fan. In hindsight, the fan was just starting to spin last year. It was this year that the bad decisions of the last several years splattered all over the economy, affecting us all. This year was the year that prices of oil and other commodities skyrocketed to all time highs as the markets worried over the impact of runaway inflation, before crashing to historic lows as deflation became the watch word. This was the year that the stock market hit the skids at the same time that house values deteriorated throughout the country. This was the year that some of the mightiest banks and brokerage companies bit the dust or needed Government bailouts to survive. Credit default swaps became part of the national conversation and Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson became central figures on the nightly news, instead of trivia questions for economics students. This was a year of fear, and uncertainty.
Here is a timeline to some of the highlights (low lights) of the year:
January –
- Bank of America, with low cost government financing, bought out the country’s largest mortgage banker, Countrywide as the company was near
imploding. - As overseas market started to tank based on bad news in the US economy, the Fed announced a surprise cut of ¾% in the Fed discount rate.
- The Bush administration proposed a $150 billion dollar stimulus plan (which seemed huge at the time) which would send out checks to all tax payers.
- Increases in conventional and FHA loan limits were proposed.
- The Fed cut rates again, this time by .25%, for a cut of 1.25% in one week. Is there panic in the air?
February –
- The markets worry about the effects of rate cuts on inflation, and mortgage rates move higher.
- Project Lifeline is announced, the first of several plans to help homeowners behind on their mortgage.
- FHA lending limits increased, making it available to more home owners and home buyers. As conventional guidelines continued to tighten, FHA took more and more of the market share.
March –
- There is panic in the mortgage backed securities market due when 2 lenders, Carlyle Capital and Thornburg Mortgage, are forced to liquidate mortgages to raise funds. This is a small taste of what is to come.
- The Fed cuts rates by another .75%
- Mortgage rates continue to move higher.
- The Fed stepped in to engineer an emergency bailout of Wall Street giant Bear Stearns which was choking from its exposure to bad mortgage debt. With Fed help, JP Morgan Chase bought them out for a price of $2 per share. They were at $68 a share just a week earlier.
April –
- Gas prices are rising and the markets are more and more worried about inflation.
- The Fed cuts again, this time by .25%, bringing the discount rate down to 2.00% – for what looks like this is the end and the Fed is done cutting.
May –
- Conventional underwriting tightened again, and FHA moved toward risk based pricing.
- Fannie Mae drops its declining markets policy, which should be a big boost for real estate, but the PMI companies keep it in place.
- Oil prices hit an all time high of $135 per barrel. With gas prices over $4 per gallon inflation is the big worry.
- The Illinois Anti Predatory Lending law takes place, but all the loans it is supposed to regulate have already been eliminated due to market conditions.
June –
- Mortgage rates hit the highest point in over a year as inflation fears near their peak.
- Lenders write off more losses on their loan portfolios.
- The stock market, which had been volatile all year, starts diving lower.
- Oil prices hit their peak at $147 per barrel.
July –
- Indy Mac bank collapses, making it the 3rd biggest bank collapse on record.
- The Treasury steps in with an extension of credit for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the hope that it won’t need to do a full scale bailout.
- The oil bubble pops and oil prices start to fall.
- A new housing bill is passed, giving more credit to Fannie and Freddie, a $7,500 tax credit for first time home buyers and eliminating the FHA down payment assistance programs, one of the last ways to buy a home with no down payment.
August –
- This was the calm before the storm. The economy is slowing but inflation levels are still high.
- Lots of rumors and uncertainty on the economy.
September –
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are bailed out and taken into a government conservancy.
- Mortgage rates drop close to their yearly lows.
- A big bomb goes off on Wall street when Lehman Brothers is allowed to fail, Chase buys Merrill Lynch and insurance giant AIG gets a government bailout.
- The repercussions from the Lehman collapse is the start of a true credit crunch, and banks are now afraid to lend to each other, or anyone else.
- The Fed, along with other national banks, steps in with $250 billion line of credit for the major banks.
- The Fed and Treasury come up with the Tarp plan to use $750 billion of government money to buy back the toxic mortgages that are at the heart of the economic problems, re-capitalizing the banks and getting them to lend again.
October –
- The stock market is diving again.
- Volatility centers around the Tarp plan, and whether it will make it through congress. The bill goes from a 3 page out line to over 400 pages before getting passed.
- The TARP plan passes, but there is no real change in conditions.
- De-leveraging is the theme, as big investors sell everything to raise cash.
- Oil drops below $70 a barrel.
- The Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate down to 1%.
November –
- Libor and other short term interest rates move lower as some signs of the credit crunch start to ease.
- Job losses accelerate.
- The Big 3 auto makers hit the skids, and talk of a needed bailout.
- The Fed announces a plan to buy up to $600 billion in mortgage backed securities, and mortgage rates drop.
December –
- It’s officially announced that we’ve been in a recession for a full year.
- The Fed drops mortgage rates to a range of 0 to .25% – effectively 0.
- The Fed also commits to buying more bundled assets like student loans and car loans, trying to bring more liquidity to stalled out markets.
- The GM and Chrysler get their bailout, but big strings are attached and we know they will be back for more soon.
- Oil close the year at just over $40 per barrel, less than a third of its high over the summer.
- Mortgage rates fall further, and refinances boom.
I think we should all give ourselves a little pat on the back for surviving this year. There are still huge problems with the economy and with the real estate market, but there are signs to be optimistic, too. We will see what happens in the coming months and over the course of the year, but for now enjoy the New Year and my hope is that this will be a much more prosperous and less stressful one for one for all of us.
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a real difference in your family’s budget. Rates are great, but one of the big problems in this market is that a lot of people who could get the most benefit from refinancing their mortgage, won’t be able to. With the slow real estate market property values are down, which means more homes aren’t appraising high enough to qualify for the new loan. Credit standards are more restrictive and you will need to verify all your income and assets. But if you already have an FHA mortgage, none of these factors matter. FHA has one of the easiest and best programs for refinancing your mortgage, the streamlined refinance.
With a thinly traded market, and wholesale lenders filled to capacity with loans, mortgage rates ticked slightly higher this week. Still, we are near the best rates in the last several years. There will be a lot of people who benefit from the low rates we are seeing now, even if the rates don’t move any lower. With rates this low, this could be one of the biggest refi booms ever, but there are some changes this time which make this very different from previous refinance waves.
banks get when they borrow money from the Fed. Most people expected that they would cut rates to a half point, leaving some powder dry for another cut later. Instead, they cut to the bone in order to break the credit log jam. The Fed also announced that they will step up their purchases of mortgage backed securities and other bundled loans including car loans and student loans. The idea here is that the big banks, getting money for free and having a market to sell their loans in, will now be anxious to lend it out and make a nice tidy profit on the spread. But with the economy still slipping, this might not be enough incentive for them to take the risk of lending it out, at least not on the best terms. The activity in the mortgage market bears this out.
To get the most out of your refinance, you should also look at the process realistically. In past refinance booms it is almost a bragging right to be able to say that you locked into the lowest rate. The reality is the very lowest rates are usually only there for a short period, and not everyone can take advantage of them. If the refinance will lower your payment, improve your financial situation and is cost effective, it is worth doing. You might be better served going for the good rate rather than holding out for the very best rate. Also, when you are
range of 0 to.25%. The Fed was expected to cut rates by a half a point, leaving some ammunition for future action. Instead, they went bold and cut the rates effectively to zero. This was a surprise, and an indication of how soft our economy is. But the real gift to consumers was the statement that went along with the rate cut. The Fed had already started a program of buying back mortgage backed securities and other long term obligations. In their statement yesterday they announced that they were going to expand that program and buy back more mortgage bonds, and do “whatever is necessary” to get the economy moving again.
Yes, but it might not be as easy as it used to be. Whenever you have a second mortgage or home equity loan, we will need to get a subordination agreement from the lender. A subordination agreement says that the lender with the second mortgage will keep their lien in the second position, and not try and jump in front of the new first mortgage when the old loan is paid off. This has always been standard procedure with refinances, and it used to be an automatic that the second mortgage lender would grant the subordination. The lender would usually need to know the terms of the new first mortgage along with a copy of the new appraisal and title and often a check for $50 or $100 for their efforts. Some lenders were faster than others, but it was rare that a second mortgage holder would not allow the new refinance.
Holiday parties, and business productivity often takes a back seat to seasonal cheer. In most parts of the economy business is slowing down, but it isn’t a result of excess cheer. It’s still hard to find a parking space at the shopping mall, but too many of the stores are having going out of business sales, and the reports show there are more shoppers than buyers this year. When the news is all doom and gloom, more people feel anxious about their jobs and their financial well being, and are holding onto their wallets a little tighter than in years past. The one bright ray of hope in this dark scenario is mortgage rates. Mortgage rates fell again this week, and are now at the lowest point of the year.

week. One year is not a long time. One year old babies still can’t speak and crawling is usually the favored form of locomotion. On the other hand, thousands of blogs are born every day, and most of them only last a post or two before going down for the count. Based on that standard, we are close to middle aged in blog years. Well, maybe not middle aged, but we are well past the crawling stage and moving along quite nicely.
official arbiter of these things, came out with the official declaration that the recession started last December. As a friend of mine said, that has to be a great gig. It’s like a weatherman who tells you what the weather was like yesterday. Or someone who tells you not to step in the wet cement, after your foot is already stuck. I’ve been in a football pool for years, and I know that my winning percentage would be much higher if I could pick the winners after they played the games. We are in a recession and from all signs, we will be in this for a while.
With all the bad news out there, fear is the biggest problem. Each piece of bad news makes both businesses and consumers pull back a little more, and as they pull back it insures that the next round of news will be worse. At the same time, the government is in limbo now as we face the transition to the new presidency. Trillions of dollars have already been pumped into the economy, and trillions more are on the way. But for now the old president is waiting to go and isn’t coming up with new rescue plans, and the new president hasn’t taken over and can’t put anything into place until he does, so it is a waiting game. The cavalry is coming, but will they get there in time?
time when most of the mortgage support staff (appraisers, processors, underwriters and loan closers) catch up on their down time and take their vacation days before they expire at the end of the year. So it is almost a rule that the mortgage industry runs shorthanded in December. What this means is that a lot of people in the mortgage industry are going to be pulling their hair out trying to get extra work done with fewer people to do it. But these are good problems to have, and I would much rather have extra business than too much time on my hands.
you are looking to refinance your mortgage, here are some things you can do to move yourself to the front of the line and get your loan closed quicker and with less hassle: