Illinois Mortgage Rates Weekly Update
31st January 2009
Welcome to Illinois Mortgage Rates and News week in review for the week ending January 30th 2009, my take on the week’s financial news and how it affected Illinois mortgage rates.
This was another ugly week in the economy, but by now that is expected. There is news every day of companies announcing new rounds of layoffs. More
people are now receiving unemployment benefits than at any time since they started keeping track back in 1967. The stock market ended January with a drop of over 8% – its worst January ever. The consumer confidence index came in at 37.7, a new low. The GDP report released this week showed the economy declining by 3.8% in the 4th quarter last year, the worst showing in 25 years. This was better than expected, but if you count the build up in inventories, the real number is a 5.1% and this is subject to revision which will surely drive the number lower. The expectation is that this wave is intensifying and this next quarter will be much worse.
Bad news on the economy is good news for mortgage rates, so rates should be down again, right? Not quite. Both the treasury notes and mortgage backed securities markets got killed this week, sending mortgage rates higher. So the questions are, what caused the route in the market, and does this mean rates are moving up for good?
Here are some theories as to why rates jumped higher this week.
1. Foreign investors are no longer interested in buying our debt. New Treasury Secretary Geitner accused the Chinese of currency manipulation this week, and some say that this means the Chinese will no longer purchase our debt. This could be, but they were active participants in the short term Treasury auctions this week, and with as much trouble as we have with our economy, this is a global recession and there are few other places for them to put their money. They also have a vested interest in our long term success as we are the biggest buyer of their exports.
2. It is a result of the stimulus plan. The thought of the government spending billions, maybe trillions, of dollars that we don’t have is a scary concept and this means inflation is right around the next bend in the road. Inflation We may see inflation again, but we have to get past where we are now, first, and deflation seems a bigger concern than inflation. No one else is spending money now, and if the government doesn’t step in to fill the gap, the economy will continue to deteriorate.
3. The government is overextended. We have already spent too much and with more money needed to stabilize the banks and get the economy moving, the markets no longer have faith that the government can handle the amount of debt it is writing and think that rates will have to go up to attract new investors.
I have my own theory – Markets are irrational and unpredictable, at least in the short run. Furthermore, markets hate uncertainty, and we are now in a very uncertain period. Markets are naturally volatile and over the last year they have been even more extreme in their volatility. Mortgage rates are up sharply, but some experts believe that mortgage rates will drop back down, and there are 2 big reasons for this.
1. Rates have been higher than they would be normally because all the wholesale lenders were caught by surprise when the rates dropped, and they had to ramp up their support staff to get through the backlog of new loans. With more business than they could handle, they kept their margins high to control the volume. Two of the biggest wholesale lenders who have been out of the market for the last month, are now back in the market and pricing aggressively. This means they are fully ramped up and ready for more business.
2. The Fed has made it its goal to get mortgage rates down to stabilize the real estate market. The Fed bought $16.836 billion in mortgage backed securities this week, mostly at higher coupons than in previous weeks. As of Thursday they have purchased just over $69 billion in mortgage backed securities out of a goal of $500 billion by the beginning of July. Here is a link to the New York Fed which tracks the Fed’s mortgage bond purchases. This number is updated every Thursday.
No one has a crystal ball that will accurately tell them where rates will be, but if rate do drop, be prepared to lock into a rate
that works for you. Too many people didn’t take advantage of the low rates figuring that they would drop even lower. If you can lock into a rate and payment that will save you money and has a short payback period, it makes sense to take it rather than waiting for an even better deal.
In other real estate news, one feature of the new stimulus plan as currently written will eliminate the need for the $7,5000 tax credit to be paid back. The way it is now, the tax credit is good for any first time home buyer who buys a new home by July and the credit would have to be paid back over the next 15 years, at $500 per year. The new version of the credit would take away the pay back provision and let buyers file an amendatory tax return so they could get the benefit this year.
Here is what Illinois Home mortgage rates look like today for an A+ (740 Fico or above), full doc purchase or rate/term refinance on a 45 day rate lock, with 0 points, and no origination fee. The conventional loans are based on the highest conforming loan amounts, which give the best pricing. Again, there are many factors which affect mortgage rates and your ability to be approved for a loan. These rates may not fit your situation and this is just a sample of the programs that are out there. If you would like a quote for your personal situation, or to get pre-approved for a mortgage, give me a call or Contact me (Illinois mortgage company) and I’ll take the time to find the rate and program that is best for you:
Conventional loans up to $417,000
30 year fixed rate 5.50% 5.615% APR
15 Year fixed Rate 4.875% 4.942% APR
5-1 A.R.M. 5.125% 5.263% APR
For Jumbo loans over $417,000
7-1 A.R.M. 5.375% 5.598% APR
(For Jumbo loans consider breaking your loan into 2 parts – conventional to the limit and a HELOC for the rest.)
FHA LOANS – 3.5% down payment
With 1 point origination fee – 45 day lock
30 year fixed rate 5.50% 6.023% APR
With no origination fee – 60 day lock
30 year fixed rate 5.875% 6.245% APR
FHA APR reflects 3.5% down payment and the effect of mortgage insurance on the loan.
These are just a few of the mortgage programs and mortgage rates available. Which option is best for you depends on your own specific goals and needs. If you have any questions or want to go over your situation in depth, let me know how I can help.
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finance your purchase), this is probably the big question on your mind. But before I can quote a rate, I need to get some information, first. Some of the things I need to find out are:
a time last summer when oil and commodity prices were soaring ever higher, it looked like inflation (or a hybrid stagflation) was gaining the upper hand. But over the last months as the banking system neared collapse and the economy spiraled down, it became clearer and clearer that our economy was in more than a garden variety slowdown, and this was a severe recession, or maybe something worse. With the whole global economy in a panic, and oil, housing and commodity prices falling, inflation looked like it was down for the count. But market sentiment dies hard. Even as the economy remains stalled, fear of inflation is again the big worry in the markets this week.
wouldn’t bet on it.
everyone takes on their New Years resolutions. The gym is always filled with new faces, diets are started and bad habits are discarded, at least for a short time. But it is also the coldest, bitterest month of the year (some say February is, but February has the advantage of being a short month, and it is followed by March where we at least have hints of Spring). This week we see signs of both sides of the split personality. The weather here in the Chicago area was (and is) miserable. Too much cold and wind chills of 30 below are keeping people inside. But this year along with all the bad news on the economy, we are about to have a new president in the White House. The country is ready for a change (59% of Republicans are looking forward to Obama taking office) and a new figurehead at the top may help to restore confidence. Having a whole new financial team can’t hurt, either.
Financial giants Bank of America and Citigroup came out with more bad news this week. B of A gets a bailout of another $20 billion as the firm still can’t handle the indigestion from the purchase of Merrill Lynch (which was government assisted at the time). Citi, after losing another $8.29 billion dollars in the 4th quarter, is about to be split into 2 parts, one, part focused on banking, and the other on brokerage, financial management and overseeing their portfolio of around $300 billion in toxic assets. This would bring value to the banking side, and make the other half the evil twin. These developments suggest that even with all the TARP money spent, the big banks are still in crisis, and are not ready to turn on the lending spigot.
quite lively now with low rates and a major refinance boom, but purchase loans are still scarce. And yet, signs of a purchase market abound. For one thing I’m getting calls and contacts from buyers who are just testing the waters, finding out what they need to do to be prepared to buy a home this year. For another thing we have a nearly perfect storm for a strong buyers market, but this year it will be much different than the traditional Spring market.
refinance your mortgage or are in the market for a new home, but the reason these rates are so low is because the economic news is so grim. The unemployment numbers released yesterday were just as bad as everyone expected (though better than some had feared) with a loss of 524,000 jobs in December and a total of over two and a half million jobs lost in 2008. The unemployment rate is now at 7.2% and many experts say that with so many people working part time and those who have given up looking, the real number is higher. Like I said, the news is grim. But bad news for the economy translates to good news for mortgage bonds, and that means lower mortgage rates.

the calendar changes, but everything else stays pretty much the same. Leaving a year as tumultuous and ugly as 2008, we have to hope that the new year will bring a real change, but there is a whole lot of carry over from the previous year we have to deal with, first. All agree that we are in a deep recession, and fear is in the air. But there are signs of optimism, too. Later this month a new president and a new administration take power. So much of our economy is based on trust and confidence, and having a new leader inspires confidence. His first order of business is to pass a huge economic stimulus plan, and though the affects won’t be felt immediately, all that money flowing through the system is bound to have an impact over time. Interest rates are near all time lows, and that is good news for anyone looking to buy a home or refinance their mortgage. The stock market feels the optimism, they started the new year with a huge rally, even as more evidence showed the economy is still putting on the brakes. This rally may not last through next week, but it’s a new year and a new start.