Chicago Area – First Time Home Buyers Control the Market
29th April 2009
The real estate market here in the Chicago area is heating up. Traditionally the Spring market is the most active time of the year for home sales, and as the
weather starts warming up here, the market is getting warmer, too. Most of the activity is still in the lower priced category, and first time home buyers are the biggest part of the market now. There are some big reasons why first time home buyers are the focus now. Most importantly, they don’t have a home to sell. I’ve talked to a lot of home owners who would love to move and find a home with more room for their growing family, or a place which meets their needs better than their current home does. But in order to do that, they would have to sell their current home first, and right now that is a hard pill to swallow. Home prices are down, and even if move up home buyers can afford it and can get a great bargain on the larger move up home, psychologically it is tough to admit that the home they have now is worth much less than it was just a few years ago. There is pent up demand, but my guess is that the real estate market won’t really take off again until after the economy is humming again, when interest rates are higher and inflation is in the air. So for all intents and purposes, this is a first time home buyer’s market.
There are some big reasons why first time home buyers are in the market now:
- Home values are down and affordability is up. Much of the activity is focused on short sale and foreclosed properties, and these are coming in at prices we haven’t seen in years. This is a buyer’s market, and buyers have the leverage to get real bargains now.
- Interest rates are low. Mortgage interest rates are bouncing around record lows. This ties into affordability, and if you are able to buy a home at a low price with a low fixed rate mortgage, your cost of home ownership is way down.
- The government is paying first time home buyers to buy homes now. The $8,000 tax credit means that first time home buyers will be able to write off 10% of the value of their new home, up to a maximum of $8,000 if they buy a home before November 31st of this year. This means that the government is offering a discount for first time home buyers.
- Low down payment mortgage financing is available. FHA is the go to financing for first time home buyers here in the Chicago area. The down payment is 3.5% and if that money is hard to come up with, it can all come from a gift. FHA also allows for a seller credit of up to 6% (you don’t need that much) so the contract can be structured so that the seller is paying for your closing costs. FHA has also increased the maximum loan size it will take on up to $410,000 in Chicago and the surrounding suburbs, so it works for more situations now than it ever has before.
No one knows what will happen with the economy or how quickly the real estate market will recover. Unemployment is still growing, and there is a lot of fear in the air. Some experts that have been right since early on are saying that home prices could fall further. But if you are planning on being in the home for at least five years (and you shouldn’t be buying if you aren’t planning on being there for a while) it is hard to see how this isn’t a great time to buy. As the economy gets back on track, and it will eventually, more home buyers will gain confidence and the real estate market will return to a new type of normal. Over time home prices will increase, and mortgage rates will pop higher. My guess is that a whole lot of people will be kicking themselves for not buying when they had a chance. If you are a first time home buyer, or thinking about becoming one, you have control of the market now.
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bad thing. Boring is another word for stable, and it has been a long time since the mortgage market has been described as stable. This mortgage market has been ruled by volatility and it hasn’t been out of the ordinary for lenders to re-price two or three times within a single day. This is one of the things that most consumers aren’t aware of, that rates are constantly changing and the rate quoted in the morning may have expired before the afternoon hits. (This is why it makes no sense to shop mortgages by looking at ads in the newspaper, when the rates quoted were probably out of date before they were even posted.) But that was then and this is now. This week there were ups and downs both during the day and over the course of the week, but the fluctuations were small and all fit in a tight range. I’ll take boring and stable over the adrenaline inducing shift from highs to lows and back again, any day.
has shrunk in the what types of mortgages are available. There used to be a wide variety of mortgage options available but with the mortgage meltdown the options have narrowed so that the only mortgages currently written are conventional and Government fixed rate loans. Many of the now extinct loans (Sub Prime and Option ARMs) were exotic varieties which were appropriate for some situations, but were abused and rolled out to borrowers who didn’t fit the profile for benefitting from the loan, often didn’t understand what they were getting in to, and these abuses were a big cause of the mess we find ourselves in. One of the biggest casualties of the mortgage melt down has been Jumbo loans, but they might be making a comeback.
least starting to come out of its free fall. Consumer confidence is a little better than expected, the Fed Beige book shows some signs of moderation in the level of decline and the big banks all came out with record earnings this week. With all the money being pumped into the economy it should be pulling out of its dive, but we are still flying at tree level. We may have avoided the crash, but it is doubtful that we will be gaining altitude anytime soon. Consumers are still ruled by fear and caution, and aren’t likely to go out and spend if they don’t need to, and the job picture is still bleak. The bank profits are a different story.

bright spots in a gloomy economy. That is, it’s been a bright spot for those who were able to 
world. The same thing happens with markets. Just a few short weeks ago the consensus view was all doom and gloom on the stock market. Stocks were low and headed lower. It was almost a sense of panic. Since then the economy has still had its share of bad news, and the overall outlook is not much different now than it was then. But the attitude now has completely shifted. The stock market is roaring upwards and commentators are convinced we are at the bottom of our downswing and ready to resume our upward climb. Over the last few weeks the news has been mixed. There have been some optimistic signs, but a lot of others which weren’t. But over the last four weeks the market ignored the bad news and saw only the good. Commentators who a few weeks ago were throwing up their hands and saying the sky was falling, are now insisting that the sky is the limit. This same attitude is now spreading to views on the overall economy, too. I’m hearing more people say that the worst is over and we are now starting to recover. Maybe.

mortgage to lower their rate and lower their payment without going through all the qualifying they had to when they first got the loan. FHA is a government program, and the idea is that if you are able to make your payments on time with a higher rate, you will be in a better position with a lower rate, so they made qualifying as easy as possible. You don’t need to show any income or assets, the biggest credit issue is whether you are paying your mortgage on time (some lenders have established minimum credit scores), you can roll in most of your costs and in most cases you don’t even need to get a new appraisal. FHA is the biggest government loan program and FHA streamlines are very popular. But one of the best kept secrets in the mortgage business is that VA, the other big government loan, also has a streamlined program.