Illinois Mortgage Rates Weekly Update
30th May 2009
Welcome to Illinois Mortgage Rates and News week in review for the week ending May 29nd, 2009, my take on the week’s financial news and how it affected Illinois mortgage rates.
If you paid attention to the financial news last week, the biggest story was of GM and how it was on the way to bankruptcy next week. But the bigger story this week was
under reported in the main stream press, the bond market revolt which sent mortgage rates sharply higher on Wednesday. I wrote last week that volatility is returning to the mortgage rate market. Over the last several months the mortgage backed securities market has taken its cue from the Fed, and with heavy Fed buying of mortgage backed bonds and other debt, mortgage rates have dropped to historic lows and have stayed within a predictable range for the last several months. Last week we felt rumblings, little tremors in the financial markets. This week we had the earthquake. The government has been spending money at an unprecedented pace to fund the stimulus programs, 2 wars, and bail outs everywhere you look. Without government spending our economy would be frozen because the banks still aren’t lending and everyone else is afraid to spend. But in order to fund the spending, the government is taking on huge debt and printing more money, and both of which could lead to bigger problems over time, and this led to a breakdown in the bond market which fed into a panic selling route where the market lost 260 basis points in one day and over 400 for the week and mortgage rates rose over a ½ a point on Wednesday. The market recovered a good part of the losses by the end of the week, but we are now in new territory and it will take some time to see what happens next.
There are 2 schools of thought about where we are and what our real problems are. One, as the Fed and Obama administration have put forth, is that we need to do whatever is needed to get the economy back on track, and though inflation may be a problem down the road, we have bigger issues near term. The idea here is that with the implosion of the banking system, a housing market that is still searching for bottom and high and growing unemployment, inflation has no place to take root, but the threat of deflation is still a possibility. If we have a huge hole, you need to fill it up before you start worrying about how high a hill you will build. One of the worries is that foreign investors like China, which holds over a trillion dollars of our debt, will stop buying our debt. This may happen, but it won’t be any time soon. China’s fate is closely intertwined with ours. We are their biggest market for exports, which has been the basis of their growth, and if they stopped buying our debt that would destroy the value of the debt they now hold. They will complain, but it is in their interest to get us up and moving as quickly as possible. Treasury Secretary Geitner is making a trip their this week, and this is sure to be one of the big items on the agenda.
The other school of thought is based on looking back at what has happened in the past when government spending was too high compared to our GNP (gross national product). This idea says that there is no free lunch, and if we continue to spend at such a high rate, we will have to raise taxes on everyone, bringing down the economy, and inflation will spike to a point which will make life miserable. This school of thought says if we don’t reign in spending now we will be in for a long period of slow growth and inflation, much worse than what we are dealing with now. When the economy was tanking, this wasn’t as much of a fear, but now with the economy showing some signs of stabilizing, fear is setting in.
No one knows what will happen in the future or which school of thought will win out. The Fed still has ¾ of a trillion dollars set aside to buy back mortgage backed securities to keep rates low. But if no one believes they can do what they need to, then it really won’t matter. At the same time, a lot of the inflation view is based on the thought that the economy has turned a corner and we are starting to head up in a fast recovery. If we see some bad economic reports and the green shoots turn out to be weeds, we could be right back in the range we were in before. The bond market (and mortgage rates) had a big recovery near the end of the week, so it’s clear that the market was over sold. In order for the economy to recover rates have to stay low. The question now is if this is a warning of what could come before we head back to the same pattern we were in before, or if this is the new reality, and now matter how much the government wants to keep rates low, the market will demand a higher premium. I don’t think we are out of the woods yet, and there is reason to think we aren’t finished with the low rates yet. But if you are planning on buying a new home, or refinancing your current mortgage, this might be a wake up call. Take advantage of the opportunities when you can. They won’t last forever.
In other news, the highly anticipated plan for how the $8,000 first home buyers tax credit was released. After a big buildup with the expectation that this would allow the credit to be used up front for the buyer’s down payment … phbbbbt … bupkis … nothing. Or at least nothing that is going to bring anyone new into the market. The new rules (details again to follow) will let first time home buyers take a loan against the tax credit to use as additional down payment after they have already made their minimum 3.5% FHA down payment, or they can use it to pay for closing costs. But this is a solution without a problem. The home buyers looking to grab on to the first rung of the home ownership ladder aren’t worried about making extra down payment (which won’t save a lot off their monthly payment) and if they are short funds for closing costs they can negotiate for the seller to pay a credit toward their closing costs. Without a big need for what this new program will offer, I doubt that we will see the lenders and other parties make the effort to put together the infrastructure needed to make this work. Someone is going to have to make the 2nd mortgages secured against the tax credits, but with low demand, I don’t see a big move toward getting this together soon. If you are other wise well qualified and were hoping to become a first time home buyer this year, your best option is to call all your friendly relatives and see if you can get a gift for the down payment. Once you have bought and closed on your home you will be able to amend your tax return and take the tax credit this year, so you will get the credit back as a check a few weeks after you close.
Mortgage rates moved around a lot, but ended about the same as where they ended last week. Here is what Illinois Home mortgage rates look like today for an A+ (740 Fico or above), full doc single family home purchase or rate/term refinance on a 45 day rate lock, with 0 points, and no origination fee. The conventional and FHA rates are based on the highest conforming loan amounts, which give the best pricing. Again, there are many factors which affect mortgage rates and your ability to be approved for a loan. These rates may not fit your situation and this is just a sample of the programs that are out there. If you would like a quote for your personal situation, or to get pre-approved for a mortgage, give me a call or contact me (Illinois mortgage company) and I’ll take the time to find the rate and program that is best for you:
Conventional loans up to $417,000
30 year fixed rate 5.25% 5.349% APR
15 Year fixed Rate 4.75% 4.836% APR
5-1 A.R.M. 4.375% 4.473% APR
For Jumbo loans over $417,000
30 Year Fixed Rate* 5.875% 6.057%
*Special pricing based on 75% LTV for purchase, 680 and above FICO single family homes up to $750,000 loan amount – pre-payment penalty applies.
7-1 A.R.M. 5.375% 5.453% APR
(For smaller Jumbo loans another option is to break your loan into 2 parts – conventional to the limit and a HELOC or second mortgage for the rest.)
FHA LOANS – 3.5% down payment – FHA Maximum varies by County
With 1 point origination fee – 45 day lock
30 year fixed rate 5.00% 5.479% APR
With no origination fee – 45 day lock
30 year fixed rate 5.25% 5.463% APR
FHA APR reflects 3.5% down payment and the effect of mortgage insurance on the loan. Call for information on no-cost FHA streamlined Refinances
VA Veterans Administration 0 Down Loans
With 1 point origination fee – 45 day lock
30 Year Fixed Rate 5.00% 5.478%
Call for information on no-cost VA Streamlined Refinances
These are just a few of the mortgage programs and mortgage rates available. Which option is best for you depends on your own specific goals and needs. If you have any questions or want to go over your situation in depth, let me know how I can help.
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able to use the $8,000 tax credit, but this is looking like a big disappointment. Donovan made big news a couple of weeks back when he announced (pre-maturely) that FHA would allow the credit to be monetized and turned into a second mortgage so that first time home buyers could use it as part of their down payment. Saving up for the down payment has always been the biggest hurdle to buying a new home. The real estate community (it was first announced in front of a Realtor’s convention) went nuts when this was first announced. If other wise qualified home buyers could use this tax credit as part of their down payment, it would be a big shot in the arm for the purchase market in general. The next day HUD started walking back some of the promises. FHA put up a mortgagee letter stating how the program was intended to work, and then took it down the same day. The details that were supposed to come out within the week, didn’t come out. Now, a few weeks later, the program is being rolled out again, but the most important part is missing. The $8,000 tax credit will be allowed for use as part of an FHA mortgage (as a 2nd mortgage secured against the tax credit – details to come) but they can only use it to pay for closing costs or to increase their down payment after they have already invested the minimum 3.5%.
mortgage rates gone for good?
predictable. Mortgage rates have gone up and down in this range (sometimes in the same day), and every move has been accompanied by some news which was credited with moving the market in that direction. But over this time the Fed has been a stabilizing influence. They’ve committed $1.25 trillion to buy mortgage backed securities to keep rates low, and so far their plan has worked flawlessly. But this week new fears are in the market and the worry is that it is going to be different this time. Mortgage bonds were near the best part of their rang on Wednesday after the minutes of the last Fed Open Market Committee were released and showed that the Fed has discussed extending their mortgage buying program if necessary, and renewing their goal of keeping rates low. But the best rates didn’t last long. On Thursday the mood of the markets shifted and both Treasuries and mortgage backed securities got blasted, sending mortgage rates higher (though mortgage bond yields are near the high end of the range, mortgage rates haven’t gotten hit nearly as bad). So the question now is, is this just more noise and we are still in the same range, or is it different this time, and rates are now poised to rise?
The big news last week was the announcement that the first time home buyer tax credit would be monetized and available for use as down payments on FHA loans. At the time, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan said details would be released the following week (this week). The week is over and there is still nothing concrete. As I said at the time, this will take a while before we actually see this put in place and it looks like they got ahead of themselves by announcing this now before the plan was ready. Details will have to be worked out on how this program can work with FHA guidelines, how the lenders will incorporate it into their underwriting and closing processes and who will actually make the loans (based on the tax refunds) and how these loans will be secured. There is a lot to be done before this program is rolled out, but I expect this will be a major factor in the market once it is in place. We don’t have news yet, but the bets are that this program will be going forward and is likely to help a lot more first time home buyers buy homes now.

though not surprising when you consider how many people who have lost their jobs in the last year. Industrial production numbers were down, but not as much as expected and much better than last month’s figures. The Consumer Sentiment Index went up a touch, showing that people are feeling a little more optimistic about the future. Inflation gauges PPI and CPI (Producer and consumer price indexes) came in a little hotter than expected. CPI base rate was at 0% for the month, showing no inflation, as expected. The core rate however, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, came in .3% higher. Inflation may be building, but this is just as likely to be a blip in the numbers. Until the economy is back on track inflation will just be a secondary issue.
This was a good week for mortgage rates. Mortgage rates improved 4 days in a row before ending the week on an off note. So we are now solidly back in the range we’ve been bouncing back and forth in over the last months. For some people low mortgage rates are starting to get boring. When rates first dived last December, there was a real frenzy to jump in and take advantage of the low rates by refinancing at a much lower rate. Mortgage rates are still in the all time low range, but the urgency to refinance isn’t the same, even for borrowers who could save a lot. Rates have been predictable lately, and it is likely that, with some ups and downs, rates will be in a good range for a while. But at some point rates will go up. If a refinance would help you now, don’t put it off for too long.
HUD, the administrator of FHA will soon allow the $8,000 first time home buyer credit to be “monetized†and used as a down payment on FHA mortgages. I’ve been saying for a while that this is going to be the
were treated like every other property. If you qualified for financing, there were loans available. That’s not necessarily the case now. As a result of the housing downturn and the mortgage mess, financing has become harder to get for all properties, but condos have been hit the hardest. A lot of this is due to condos being too successful. Condos fit the life style that works best for many homeowners, especially singles and couples who want prime living space but don’t want to spend their time mowing the lawn and shoveling snow. Demand for condos was so high, both here in Chicago and throughout the nation, that it led to a boom in new condo construction and conversions. Over the last 2 years thousands of new condo units have come onto the market, even as the market has softened. Financing was too easy during the boom years, but now the cycle is reversing and guidelines are being tightened to the point where many condo complexes will not be able to get financing, even for the most qualified buyers.
FHA condo financing
conventional wisdom is now a step ahead of that and figuring if we are at the bottom now, a quick recovery is on the way. Two big things happened this week which gave weight to that opinion, the results of the stress tests on the 19th biggest banks were released, and the unemployment numbers came in better than expected. As always, the news was a little more nuanced than the headlines showed, but optimism is creeping in.
So what does all this mean for the direction of mortgage interest rates? Mortgage rates move mostly based on activity in the mortgage backed securities markets, but they tend to follow the lead of Treasury bills, debt guaranteed by the US government, which has always been considered the gold standard of safety. Treasuries have been getting killed over the last few weeks. This is partly a result of the optimistic mood in the markets (optimism means money flows out of bonds and into stocks) and partly because the government is borrowing so much money (through new Treasury auctions) and more supply means inflation is lurking somewhere over the horizon. Treasury yields have spiked higher over this time, but mortgage rates haven’t been hit nearly as bad. The big reason for this is that the Fed is holding up the mortgage market with a promise to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgages, of which they have already bought over $400 billion. They still have a tremendous amount of purchasing power, and so far, they have kept rates much lower than they would other wise be. But have we reached the end of the line earlier than expected? If the markets are expecting a fast recovery, and inflation, they’ll look past the Fed’s buying period, and mortgage rates will rise. This is possible, but most experts aren’t predicting a fast recovery. It is more likely that we will bump along the bottom, and as confidence returns there will be gradual growth. The markets are anxious for this to be over, but with high unemployment and consumers who are more prone to save what they have than go on a new spending spree, the recovery may be slow. Markets seldom move in straight lines. Sentiment changes and there are always blips, both higher and lower. Rates may go higher for a time, but in my opinion, the only way we can have a sustainable recovery is through an improvement in the housing market and for that to happen mortgage rates have to stay low. The government wants low mortgage rates, and they are doing every thing they can to make this happen. They may not be successful, but I wouldn’t bet against them.
easing and that the economy is likely to start growing again by the end of this year. In other statements he has talked about “green shootsâ€, signs of life sprouting up through a barren landscape. One of the green shoots he mentioned specifically was that the real estate market is starting to pick up steam. I can attest to that. Here in the Chicago area the purchase market is suddenly active, and for the first time in ages I am seeing multiple contracts, bidding wars, on the same property. Most of the buyers out there are buying a home for the first time, and a good percentage of what they are buying are short sale or foreclosed homes, so this won’t likely translate into a full blown market recovery any time soon. But these are clearly green shoots. There are some big reasons why first time home buyers are getting into the game now. Property values have come way down, and new buyers can get in at bargain prices. Financing is available through FHA with a low down payment, and that makes it easier for buyers to afford their first home. But a lot of the activity is being spurred directly by Fed action and government incentives. The $8,000 tax credit is a big win for anyone who can qualify, and the biggest incentive may be that interest rates are now at the lowest point since the 1950s. This has helped not just home buyers, but any home owner who has a home and is able to lower their payments with a mortgage refinance. These low mortgage rates have been a big factor in allowing these green shoots to sprout, but there will be an expiration date on these low rates, and at some point rates will head higher.