Mortgage Rates Are Dropping – Its Déjà Vu All Over Again
9th July 2009
To paraphrase baseball’s greatest philosopher, Yogi Berra, it’s looking like déjà vu all over again. For most of this year mortgage rates have hovered in a range
near their lowest levels of the last 40 years. Rates were so low because the economy was in free fall, and the Fed had made it its stated mission to keep mortgage rates low to stabilize the real estate market. After announcing that they would continue to buy mortgage backed securities (with a budget of 1.25 trillion dollars) the normally volatile mortgage rates market settled into a pattern so dull and boring that the rates became predictable. This range lasted for months, but all good things must come to an end, and as June came in the market swooned. Markets are ruled by emotion, and the fear of economic collapse was now gone, but the fear of inflation (from printing new money to pay for all the new spending) took hold. There was talk of green shoots, and many market participants thought the economy was about to rebound quickly. The stock market surged, and mortgage rates went up nearly a full point from their low to the high point. Mortgage refinances stopped over night, and while the purchase market kept on going, higher rates cut down on the purchasing power of many first time home buyers. But, déjà vu, we are now coming right back to where we were before the market tanked and rates are dropping again.
The consensus thinking is now back to an outlook that the economy has stopped its free fall, but there are no signs of a quick recovery. Unemployment is still spiking higher, and with massive loss of wealth (home values and the stock market) inflation has no way to take root. That means the bias is back toward lower mortgage rates. That doesn’t mean rates will continue to drop, and it certainly doesn’t mean that we are back into the calm period we were before (after yesterday’s huge bond market rally the market is off today, meaning slightly higher rates for this morning). But the trend has changed, and rates are now back near their lows again. If you were thinking of refinancing before but didn’t pull the trigger, or if you have been thinking of buying a new home, this could be a good reason to get off the fence now. Rates are low again, but the June move up reminds us that these low rates won’t last forever. Take advantage of them while you can.
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