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Peter Thompson - Illinois Mortgage Broker

With Home Sales Down 27%, What Does This Say About the Chicago Area Housing Market?

27th August 2010

This week the National Association of Realtors announced some grim news – existing home sales were off 27.2% in Chicago first time home buyer mortgage, Chicago FHA loan July, the worst reading in 15 years. Though this news is grim, it isn’t surprising. The real estate market has been hit hard and with employment high, it isn’t likely to turn around soon. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

There are a couple of things to keep in mind that put this number into fuller context:
  • First time home buyers bought in force earlier in the year to take advantage of the tax credit. So many buyers who would have otherwise been in the market now, have already bought. July’s numbers were worse than expected, but sales came in stronger earlier in the year.

 

  • Real estate is seasonal. Home sales usually peak in the Spring time, dip in the Summer and then there is usually a smaller increase in the fall. Traditionally, Summer is one of the slowest times for real estate sales. First time home buyers often buy in the Spring after getting their tax refunds, and families want to buy earlier to make sure they allow time to close and be in the house before school starts in late August.

But no matter how you spin it, these numbers are low. This is bad news if you are a homeowner and you are planning on selling your home soon. There are so many people who own a home now and need more space, but are stuck in their current home and have to sell before they can buy. The number of homes for sale has risen, even as home sales have dropped, so the inventory of homes for sale is high. This puts more pressure on home prices to drop even lower. But there is also a good side to this, but only for those who are still on the sidelines and haven’t bought a home yet.

I am seeing contracts on homes in areas I know well, where the prices are going back in time to where they were 10 years ago. With so many homes and so few buyers ready to move now, it is a true buyer’s market, and the home that are selling are selling at great prices. Add to this that mortgage rates are at all time lows, and this means that mortgage payments are going even further back in the time machine. Affordability is the key to any recovery now, and I do expect to see some increase in sales over the next months. And for those who do buy, homes are now more affordable than they have been in years. And in the long run, this is a good thing.

Peter Thompson 630-479-6424

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